Experience and Risk

Its interesting how in so many cases some risks sound terrifying to those who are not at risk, while the same risk is hardly a concern for those exposed.

Let me explain...

As many of you have read there was a fatal shark attack just South of us this last week at Solana Beach. The CEO of the company I work for was in the water surfing at the time and was told to go in by a government helicopter that cleared the beaches for a few miles around the attack. Here is an AP video about the attack:



What I find so fascinating is the responses that people have when something like this happens. There has been a huge media frenzy in SoCal and everyone seems to be talking about it. With that being the case it is very interesting to read and hear the contrast between those people who are regular ocean goers, like surfers, swimmers and divers and those who are not. Those who are in the water the most, and thus, put them selves at risk are the least worried about the incident.

As a point of comparison there are a number of activities that I engage in that some people find borderline suicidal. The interesting thing is that those of you who are reading this and fall into one of these "risk taking categories" will not see them as particularly dangerous since you have experience within the environment and have a "corrected" risk perception. Of course, those of you without experience are likely to be frightened. Take note of your reaction as you read on:

Bear Attacks



I have had a number of people react to my frequent backpacking excursions with shock believing that to go out into the California backcountry is tantamount to suicide. From my own experience encounters with Bears are not all that scary. When they come into camp it is more of an annoyance than anything else and when we see them on the trail it is mostly exhilarating. .

Sea Wasps



Growing up my mother regularly referred to her red Merck Medical manual. On one occasion she was reading to us about a number of deadly animals and the reactions that occur when one is stung, biten...etc. Well, I vividly remember hearing the deadly effects of a sea wasp (small jellyfish) sting. Pain, violent convulsions and death, all within 90 seconds. So, I always had this notion in the back of my mind that the deadlest thing in the world is the Sea Wasp.

A year after Kristina and I got married we were diving in Roatan. One night we were preping for a night dive (my favorite type of diving!) and I was balanced on the back of the boat eager to be the first in the water. Our divemaster was giving us the dive briefing and I was inching out over the water anticipating his final command of "get out of my boat!" when he ended with a final warning:

"Oh, and don't linger on the surface with your lights. The lights will attract Sea Wasps!"

At this point I was pretty freaked as the memories of the horrible effects of a Sea Wasp sting flooded my thoughts. Especially since an unusually large wave could send me tumbling off the boat and into the water at any moment. After a long second of fear the dive master concluded with:

"And believe me you don't want to get stung, they hurt like crazy!"

With that I started to laugh as I took a step backward and exited the boat. Often books, magazines and especially medical manuals give only the worst case scenario. I imagine that if you looked up the possible effects of a bee sting a medical manual wouldn't simply list the common scenario, but would include a detailed description of the very worst cases of allergic reactions.

Rip Tides



Most people are very worried about rip tides. Divers and swimmers are careful to avoid them. In contrast, Surfers LOVE them. They are to Surfers the equivalent of a ski lift since they can draw a person out into the lineup at a rapid pace. Thus, a terrifying scenario for many is not only something not to worry about, but something to be sought out. This is because surfers encounter them on occasion and have the experience necessary to return safely to shore.

The interesting thing, and my point, is that many of the dangers in the world that are dramatic are only scary to those unacquainted with the environment. Without significant exposure people dramatically overestimate the odds of danger. (This is natural. People overestimate the odds of dramatic deaths where they feel they have little control, and underestimate the odds of death while engaging in activities that they feel that they can control. Thus, most people are terrified of shark attacks where the odds are 1 in 1.8 million and not frightened to get behind the wheel of their car where the odds of death are 1 in 228.)

I find the subject of people's reactions to risk to be a fascinating subject. Especially since knowing the odds does so little to change ones perseptions of risk. It seems, paradoxically, like the only way to get over a fear of sharks is to spend time in the ocean.

I know, not really a comforting thought.